Bitcoin credit · basket analysis · 16 Oct 2026

Synthetic STRK: half STRK, half SATS + ASST

For a 10-year STRK holder, two things matter: cash income today and total return over the long run. We tested a simple swap. Keep half the sleeve in STRK, and put the other half in Strive's new 15% SATS preferred plus a slice of ASST common. On a hypothetical $100,000, it pays more today, and by Dec-36 it is ahead in every bitcoin path we model.

Model prices: 15 Oct 2026 closes (STRK $73.96, ASST $25.64), SATS assumed bought at $100, BTC $82,376. Pre-tax, before costs, dividends taken as cash unless noted.

Cash income / yr

$11,033

vs $10,817 for 100% STRK (+2.0%)

Effective yield

11.03%

vs 10.82% for 100% STRK

Dec-36 base case

9.7×

vs 7.5× for 100% STRK (BTC $1.45M)

Dec-36 bull / bear

18.1× / 4.2×

vs 13.0× / 3.9× for 100% STRK

01The sleeve STRK fills

In a bitcoin-heavy portfolio, STRK is the ballast. It pays high income whatever BTC's mood, its volatility is moderate (about 38% annualized over the past year vs about 44% for BTC and about 81% for MSTR), and over long holds it has captured a large share of BTC's growth. In our model it compounds at roughly 67–70% of BTC's CAGR to Dec-36 with dividends taken as cash, and roughly 80–95% with dividends reinvested. That combination lets the rest of the portfolio ride out bear markets without forced selling.

This is not a whole-portfolio proposal. It is a better mousetrap for that one sleeve. The question is simple: can we get at least STRK's cash income and more long-run total return? Today STRK's embedded call (0.1 MSTR per share, which only pays off if MSTR rises about 6.6× to $1,000) is a slow-burning option. ASST is a faster one, and SATS's higher coupon pays for it.

02Sizing the split

Inside the 50% that leaves STRK, every dollar moved from SATS (15%) to ASST (0%) costs income. Income stays at or above 100% STRK as long as SATS is at least 36.1% of the sleeve. We tested four splits:

Basket (weights of total)	Effective yield	Income / yr	vs STRK	Dec-36 bear / base / bull	Dec-28 bear / base / bull	Income ≥ STRK?
100% STRK	10.82%	$10,817	—	3.9× / 7.5× / 13.0×	+25% / +64% / +155%	✓
STRK 50% / SATS 40% / ASST 10%	11.41%	$11,408	+5.5%	4.0× / 8.8× / 16.0×	+25% / +77% / +201%	✓
STRK 50% / SATS 37.5% / ASST 12.5% recommended	11.03%	$11,033	+2.0%	4.2× / 9.7× / 18.1×	+24% / +85% / +227%	✓
STRK 50% / SATS 35% / ASST 15%	10.66%	$10,658	−1.5%	4.3× / 10.7× / 20.1×	+22% / +92% / +254%	✗ below STRK
STRK 50% / SATS 30% / ASST 20%	9.91%	$9,908	−8.4%	4.7× / 12.5× / 24.2×	+20% / +106% / +307%	✗ below STRK

Effective yield = weighted current yield at model prices: STRK 8/73.96 = 10.82%, SATS 15/100 = 15.00%, ASST 0%. At 16 Oct midday (STRK $71.94), STRK yields 11.12%, the recommended basket 11.19%. Dec-36 multiples are price plus cash dividends received, per $1 invested.

Our pick: STRK 50% / SATS 37.5% / ASST 12.5%. It is the most ASST, and therefore the most upside, that still clears STRK's income. It pays $11,033 a year (+2.0%), and its Dec-36 base case is 9.7× against 7.5×. The 35%/15% split has more upside but pays $10,658, below STRK. The 40%/10% split is the safer option: more income now, less long-term upside — $11,408 a year. Every dollar below $100 you pay for SATS only adds income: at $90, SATS yields 16.67%.

03The basket, per $100,000

Ticker	Weight	$	Price	Yield	Income/yr	Shares	What it does
STRKStrategy	50.0%	$50,000	$73.96	10.82%	$5,408	676.0	8% fixed on $100, cumulative; 0.1 MSTR convert Income engine + embedded call
SATSStrive	37.5%	$37,500	$100.00	15.00%	$5,625	375.0	15% fixed on $100, cumulative; 18-month reserve Income kicker
ASSTStrive	12.5%	$12,500	$25.64	0.00%	$0	487.5	Common; pays $0 Growth leg (funded by SATS's extra yield)

100% STRK is 1,352 shares per $100k at $73.96, paying $10,817 a year. Both coupons in the basket are fixed, so the cash income is locked unless an issuer suspends dividends.

Cash income per year on $100k

Dashed line: 100% STRK. Faded bars fall below it.

04Long-run total return

Value of $1 by Dec-36 (price + cash dividends)

$100k by Dec-36	Bear	Base	Bull
100% STRK	$393,4983.9×	$747,1117.5×	$1,300,42913.0×
with dividends reinvested	$643,6086.4×	$1,066,95310.7×	$1,682,85816.8×
STRK 50% / SATS 37.5% / ASST 12.5%	$415,4584.2×	$971,2809.7×	$1,805,46018.1×
with dividends reinvested	$745,1847.5×	$1,284,61312.8×	$2,158,39521.6×

Annualized to Dec-36	Bear	Base	Bull
BTC	21.2%	32.4%	40.5%
100% STRK (cash / reinvested)	14.4% / 20.0%68% / 95% of BTC	21.8% / 26.1%67% / 80% of BTC	28.6% / 31.8%70% / 79% of BTC
STRK 50% / SATS 37.5% / ASST 12.5% (cash / reinvested)	15.0% / 21.7%71% / 103% of BTC	24.9% / 28.4%77% / 88% of BTC	32.8% / 35.1%81% / 87% of BTC

Over about 10.2 years. Dec-28 checkpoints for the recommended basket vs STRK: bear +24% vs +25%, base +85% vs +64%, bull +227% vs +155%. In the model, SATS stays near its $100 par (Strive sells new shares into any premium), so its return is mostly coupon. The extra long-run return comes from ASST.

The bear path, year by year

Bear path, $100k	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-36
BTC (bear path)	$52k	$62k	$100k	$170k	$220k	$585k
100% STRK	$68,723	$84,574	$125,158	$156,484	$182,641	$393,498
Recommended	$61,817	$79,409	$123,600	$162,747	$192,030	$415,458
Gap	−10.0%	−6.1%	−1.2%	+4.0%	+5.1%	+5.6%

In an immediate crash, the basket falls further. At the BTC $52k low in Dec-26, it is −38% vs −31% for STRK (income included), and an instant BTC −30% re-price gives −36% vs −31%. The gap is −6.1% by Dec-27, shrinks to −1.2% by Dec-28 and turns positive (+4.0%) by Dec-29.

05Rate-cut stress: nothing to cut

There are no variable-rate preferreds in this basket (no SATA, no STRC). STRK pays a fixed 8% on $100 and SATS a fixed 15% on $100, so a board rate cut changes the basket's income by $0. A SATA cut would, if anything, help SATS holders: cutting SATA from 13% to 11% saves Strive about $28M a year in dividends. The real income risks are a suspended dividend (both are cumulative, so it would accrue unpaid) and reinvestment yields falling later.

06The risks we're taking

Strive is on a shorter clock

With SATS added, Strive's preferred dividends run about $287M a year (SATA about $182M plus SATS $105M), against about $495M of cash and STRC, which includes the new SATS reserve. That is roughly 20–21 months of cover. Strategy has about 3.5 years. In our bear path, Strive issues no new paper through 2028, its cash runs out around June 2028, and it sells about 1,700 BTC (about 4% of its stack) by Dec-28 to keep paying. Strive's growth also relies on issuing more preferred, which needs BTC to cooperate within that window. SATS is covered 1.0× by BTC alone at about $48.9k BTC, against roughly 3.65× coverage for STRK on Strategy's stack today.

Half the sleeve is one issuer

SATS and ASST are both Strive. A Strive-specific problem would hit 50% of the sleeve at once: the preferred and the common together. STRK keeps the other half on Strategy, the larger balance sheet with about 3.5 years of dividend cover.

SATS doesn't trade yet

SATS settles Tue 20 Oct 2026, with a Nasdaq listing expected within about 30 days of settlement. Until it lists, you can't buy it on the open market, and an emergency sale isn't possible either. Strive plans an at-the-market program after listing, and that new supply could push the price around. ASST is volatile: over the past 12 months it fell 86.5% peak to trough.

07SATS: official terms

Priced 15 Oct 2026: 7,000,000 shares at $90 (upsized by 2,000,000), about $630M gross and $700M of stated amount ($100 per share).
15.00% on the $100 stated amount ($15 a year): 15.00% if you pay $100, 16.67% at the $90 IPO price. Cumulative, paid every business day from 9 Nov 2026 if declared.
Settles Tue 20 Oct 2026; Nasdaq listing under "SATS" expected within about 30 days of settlement.
18-month dividend reserve of $22.50 per share (about $157.5M), funded from existing cash and securities. Strive may pay dividends from it, subject to Nevada law.
Ranks behind SATA, ahead of ASST common. The liquidation preference is never adjusted below $100. Not convertible. The terms don't restrict Strive from issuing senior or parity stock.

Sources: Strive 8-K with pricing press release (Ex. 99.1) and free-writing prospectus, both on SEC EDGAR, 15–16 Oct 2026; preliminary 424B5, 13 Oct 2026.

08Methodology

BTC paths (December nodes, monthly geometric interpolation): bear $52k / $62k / $100k (Dec-26/27/28) → $585k by Dec-36; base $90k / $155k / $220k → $1.45M; bull $120k / $250k / $400k → $2.66M. Deribit Dec-26 options on 16 Oct put roughly a 2–5% chance on BTC finishing the year below $52k, so the bear path is a stress, not a forecast.
STRK is valued as STRF's yield plus a calibrated credit spread (wider at the June 2026 lows), plus a Black-Scholes value for the 0.1-MSTR conversion right ($1,000 strike, 55% vol, 10-year proxy).
SATS has no trading history, so its price tracks BTC using STRD's 12-month low-to-today ratio: about $70 at BTC $60k and $64 at $52k. It holds at about $100 par above today's BTC, because Strive sells into any premium.
MSTR and ASST come from a monthly balance-sheet engine: BTC, cash, debt, preferreds and dividend obligations. Each company issues preferred toward a leverage target and sells common only above 1.25× equity NAV. Each pays dividends from cash and sells BTC only if cash runs out. Premiums to NAV vary with BTC and are cut 15% in the bear case through 2028. Strive's starting balance sheet uses the official SATS terms: $700M of preferred, $105M a year of dividends, and about $609M of net proceeds into BTC.
Stresses: an instant BTC −30% re-price on today's balance sheets, and the bear path's low point including income. The 12-month backtest uses STRD as SATS's stand-in: realized max drawdown −49% for the recommended basket vs −48% for STRK.
Scaling: every figure is computed on $100,000. Income = weight × $100k × yield. Reinvested figures put dividends back into the same weights every month.

09Caveats

The $100 SATS entry is a deliberate, conservative assumption with no lucky IPO timing. Buying below $100 only helps: $90 lifts the recommended basket's income to $11,658.
The engine is a model. Premiums to NAV, issuance and preferred price anchors are assumptions calibrated to about a year of data. ASST's long-run multiples are the most model-sensitive number on this page.
Model prices are 15 Oct closes. By 16 Oct midday, STRK was about 3% lower and ASST about 5% lower.
Not modelled: taxes (both issuers expect return-of-capital treatment), costs and spreads, margin, and management choices other than the ones the engine assumes.